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Dengan diperkenalkan skenario emisi baru yaitu Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) yang digunakan untuk model iklim terbaru sehingga dapat memodelkan iklim dimasa depan. Prediksi iklim dapat dimanfaatkan untuk prediksi curah hujan yang dapat dipergunakan untuk berbagai analisis hidrologi. Data RCP yang digunakan merupakan RCP 85 yang dikalibrasi dengan curah hujan setempat. Dari hasil kalibrasi didapatkan parameter statistik yang mendekati dengan stasiun hujan tersebut. Dengan menggunakan distribusi gamma, jumlah hari dan besaran hujan dapat dilakukan. Dari hasil analisis didapatkan prediksi pada tahun 2029 akan terjadi curah hujan 2126 mm/tahun dengan 121 hari hujan dengan konfigurasi 6 bulan klasifikasi basah, 2 bulan klasifikasi normal dan 4 bulan klasifikasi kering.
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References
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- Mamenun, H. Pawitan, and A. Sophaheluwakan, “Validasi dan koreksi data satelit TRMM pada tiga pola hujan di Indonesia (Validation and correction of TRMM satellite data on three rainfall patterns in Indonesia),†J. Meteorol. dan Geofis., 2014.
- A. J. Cannon, “Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an N-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables,†Clim. Dyn., 2018, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6.
- A. Anwar, S. Sudjatmiko, and M. F. Barchia, “Pergeseran Klasifikasi Iklim Oldeman Dan Schmidth-Fergusson Sebagai Dasar Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Di Bengkulu,†Nat. J. Penelit. Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Alam dan Lingkung., 2019, doi: 10.31186/naturalis.7.1.9261.
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References
K. E. Trenberth, “Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change,†Clim. Change, 1999, doi: 10.1023/A:1005488920935.
P. Pathak, A. Kalra, S. Ahmad, and M. Bernardez, “Wavelet-Aided Analysis to Estimate Seasonal Variability and Dominant Periodicities in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Midwestern United States,†Water Resour. Manag., 2016, doi: 10.1007/s11269-016-1445-0.
P. R. Hosang, J. Tatuh, and J. E. X. Rogi, “ANALISIS DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP PRODUKSI BERAS PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA TAHUN 2013 – 2030,†EUGENIA, 2012, doi: 10.35791/eug.18.3.2012.4101.
H. Tian et al., “Model estimates of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency in the terrestrial ecosystems of the southern United States during 1895-2007,†For. Ecol. Manage., 2010, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.10.009.
K. Hayhoe et al., “Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast,†Clim. Dyn., 2007, doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8.
K. Keller, G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger, “Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and information needs,†Clim. Change, vol. 91, no. 1–2, pp. 5–10, 2008, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9114-6.
D. Zuo, Z. Xu, W. Yao, S. Jin, P. Xiao, and D. Ran, “Assessing the effects of changes in land use and climate on runoff and sediment yields from a watershed in the Loess Plateau of China,†Sci. Total Environ., vol. 544, pp. 238–250, Feb. 2016, doi: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2015.11.060.
W. Y. Santoso, “Kebijakan Nasional Indonesia dalam Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim,†Hasanuddin Law Rev., 2015, doi: 10.20956/halrev.v1n3.116.
D. P. van Vuuren et al., “The representative concentration pathways: An overview,†Clim. Change, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 5–31, 2011, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
S. Shrestha, S. Sharma, R. Gupta, and R. Bhattarai, “Impact of global climate change on stream low flows: A case study of the great Miami river Watershed, Ohio,†Int. J. Agric. Biol. Eng., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 84–95, 2019, doi: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20191201.4486.
Mamenun, H. Pawitan, and A. Sophaheluwakan, “Validasi dan koreksi data satelit TRMM pada tiga pola hujan di Indonesia (Validation and correction of TRMM satellite data on three rainfall patterns in Indonesia),†J. Meteorol. dan Geofis., 2014.
A. J. Cannon, “Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an N-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables,†Clim. Dyn., 2018, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6.
A. Anwar, S. Sudjatmiko, and M. F. Barchia, “Pergeseran Klasifikasi Iklim Oldeman Dan Schmidth-Fergusson Sebagai Dasar Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Di Bengkulu,†Nat. J. Penelit. Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Alam dan Lingkung., 2019, doi: 10.31186/naturalis.7.1.9261.
H. Aksoy, “Use of gamma distribution in hydrological analysis,†Turkish J. Eng. Environ. Sci., vol. 24, no. 6, pp. 419–428, 2000.